Boeing Predicts Supply Shortages in Commercial Aviation for Next Two Decades
Projected demand for commercial aircraft to rise as global fleet expands to nearly 50,000 by 2044.
Boeing has revised its forecast for the commercial aviation market, estimating that the global fleet will reach just under 50,000 aircraft by 2044, with approximately 44,000 of those produced over the next twenty years.
The American aerospace giant acknowledged the impact of supply chain issues contributing to a slight reduction in its delivery projections during a press briefing led by Darren Hulst, Vice President of Marketing for Boeing's Commercial Airplanes (BCA), just prior to a tragic accident involving an Air India 787 Dreamliner that claimed 279 lives.
Since 1961, Boeing has released its Market Outlook report, providing a twenty-year forecast ahead of the major aerospace trade shows alternately held in Le Bourget, France, and Farnborough, UK. The upcoming Le Bourget show, the world's oldest and largest aerospace event, is set to commence shortly.
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Boeing's supply chain recovery has been more challenging than restoring air travel, according to Hulst, who noted a current deficit of new aircraft between 1,500 and 2,000 units to meet existing demand.
Full production capacity to satisfy demand is not anticipated until late in the decade.
Currently, backlogs for Boeing and its European rival, Airbus, extend well into the next decade, exacerbating the growing shortfall in aircraft availability.
Boeing projects the construction of 43,600 new airplanes by 2044, with 21,100 earmarked for replacing existing aircraft and 22,500 designated to support the increasing passenger and cargo traffic, with 50% of this growth expected to arise from China and the South and Southeast Asian regions.
In 2004, the global fleet comprised 16,780 aircraft; it is now projected to reach 49,640 in just under forty years.
A previous forecast suggested a global fleet of over 50,000 by 2043. The forecast indicates that approximately 72% of the future fleet will comprise single-aisle aircraft, benefiting from the most significant growth in domestic and regional flights, particularly within emerging markets, which are expected to see growth rates of 5% compared to 3% for developed economies.
Additionally, routes in emerging markets are predicted to expand at a more rapid pace (+6%) than those between emerging and developed markets (+3%) or strictly within developed markets (+2%).
Hulst emphasized the increasing competitiveness in the aviation sector, revealing that the top ten airlines' market share will drop from 45% of global capacity in 2000 to merely 30% by 2025, largely due to the rise of Middle Eastern carriers capturing a significant market share.
Although passenger traffic has tripled over the past 25 years, the fleet has only doubled during this period.
Forecasts anticipate annual growth of 4.2% until 2044. The global aviation industry is reported to represent a $4 trillion sector, responsible for generating 87 million jobs and transporting approximately 33% of the value of goods, despite only accounting for 1% of the total volume of transported goods.
The American aerospace giant acknowledged the impact of supply chain issues contributing to a slight reduction in its delivery projections during a press briefing led by Darren Hulst, Vice President of Marketing for Boeing's Commercial Airplanes (BCA), just prior to a tragic accident involving an Air India 787 Dreamliner that claimed 279 lives.
Since 1961, Boeing has released its Market Outlook report, providing a twenty-year forecast ahead of the major aerospace trade shows alternately held in Le Bourget, France, and Farnborough, UK. The upcoming Le Bourget show, the world's oldest and largest aerospace event, is set to commence shortly.
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Boeing's supply chain recovery has been more challenging than restoring air travel, according to Hulst, who noted a current deficit of new aircraft between 1,500 and 2,000 units to meet existing demand.
Full production capacity to satisfy demand is not anticipated until late in the decade.
Currently, backlogs for Boeing and its European rival, Airbus, extend well into the next decade, exacerbating the growing shortfall in aircraft availability.
Boeing projects the construction of 43,600 new airplanes by 2044, with 21,100 earmarked for replacing existing aircraft and 22,500 designated to support the increasing passenger and cargo traffic, with 50% of this growth expected to arise from China and the South and Southeast Asian regions.
In 2004, the global fleet comprised 16,780 aircraft; it is now projected to reach 49,640 in just under forty years.
A previous forecast suggested a global fleet of over 50,000 by 2043. The forecast indicates that approximately 72% of the future fleet will comprise single-aisle aircraft, benefiting from the most significant growth in domestic and regional flights, particularly within emerging markets, which are expected to see growth rates of 5% compared to 3% for developed economies.
Additionally, routes in emerging markets are predicted to expand at a more rapid pace (+6%) than those between emerging and developed markets (+3%) or strictly within developed markets (+2%).
Hulst emphasized the increasing competitiveness in the aviation sector, revealing that the top ten airlines' market share will drop from 45% of global capacity in 2000 to merely 30% by 2025, largely due to the rise of Middle Eastern carriers capturing a significant market share.
Although passenger traffic has tripled over the past 25 years, the fleet has only doubled during this period.
Forecasts anticipate annual growth of 4.2% until 2044. The global aviation industry is reported to represent a $4 trillion sector, responsible for generating 87 million jobs and transporting approximately 33% of the value of goods, despite only accounting for 1% of the total volume of transported goods.
