Controversy Surrounds Use of 2022 Census for Legislative Seat Redistribution in Costa Rica
The Supreme Electoral Tribunal is evaluating the reliability of the 2022 national census amidst concerns over participation rates.
Magistrates of Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) are currently assessing the reliability of the national census conducted in 2022 for the potential redistribution of legislative seats in the next Assembly.
There are concerns that some provinces may end up without a representative, while others could gain additional seats.
The TSE's deliberations are prompted by the low turnout in the 2022 census, carried out by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC), which serves as a key data point for determining how many deputies each province should have.
If the TSE decides to proceed with the 2022 census data, using the quotient and residue method applied to the 2011 census, the provinces of San José, Cartago, and Heredia would each lose one congressional seat.
These three seats would then be reallocated to the provinces of Alajuela, Puntarenas, and Guanacaste.
Andrei Cambronero, a legal advisor to the TSE, confirmed that the electoral body must finalize the distribution of congressional seats in time for the ballots in the upcoming elections.
They are currently examining various studies to determine whether to accept the 2022 census data or to revert to the 2011 figures.
According to Cambronero, there are two possible scenarios: either the magistrates conclude that the 2022 census results are unreliable due to the low participation and opt to use the 2011 census, or they decide that the most recent census data is sufficiently accurate for redistribution purposes.
The coverage rate of the 2022 census was reported at 60.7% of the population, significantly lower than the 91% achieved in 2011. This limited coverage leads the INEC to classify the results of the 2022 census as mere estimates.
In April 2024, the TSE formally requested the INEC to validate the population figures for each province.
The INEC provided these figures but noted the limitations due to the partial coverage, stating that it was impossible to derive 'proper census results.'
The TSE must resolve these issues within the next few weeks or months, as the number of seats representing citizens from each of the seven provinces must be finalized by the time of the official election call.
The TSE will formally announce this call for the elections scheduled for February 2026 on October 1.
Legislation stipulates that the assignment of deputy seats occurs with the election call.
However, it has become customary for the TSE to notify political parties of the population measurement results ahead of time, as this information is vital for parties during their internal candidate selection processes.
Article 106 of the Political Constitution mandates that the TSE allocate seats to provinces in proportion to their populations following each general census.
Cambronero indicated that discussions, exchanges, meetings, and consultations have already taken place between the TSE and INEC officials.
Recently, relevant information collected by the General Directorate of Electoral Registry was sent to the magistrates to inform their decision-making.
Currently, the 57 seats in Congress are distributed as follows: 19 for San José, 11 for Alajuela, seven for Cartago, six for Heredia, five for Puntarenas, five for Limón, and four for Guanacaste.
Should the proposed changes take effect based on the 2022 census, San José would drop to 18 seats, Alajuela would increase to 12, Cartago would remain at six, Heredia would decrease to five, Puntarenas would adjust to six, Limón would remain unchanged, and Guanacaste would increase to five.
The INEC published the results of the 2022 census on July 20, 2023, after overcoming various challenges that affected data collection.
Floribel Méndez Fonseca, the head of the institution, noted that the census managed to record 1,074,258 households from the 1,550,258 visited, yielding an 84% national coverage.
Key challenges included public reluctance to participate, absentee households, assaults on census takers, administrative delays, and insufficient personnel.
Consequently, the data collection period, which initially ran from June 8 to June 28, 2022, was extended until September to complete the task.
There are concerns that some provinces may end up without a representative, while others could gain additional seats.
The TSE's deliberations are prompted by the low turnout in the 2022 census, carried out by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC), which serves as a key data point for determining how many deputies each province should have.
If the TSE decides to proceed with the 2022 census data, using the quotient and residue method applied to the 2011 census, the provinces of San José, Cartago, and Heredia would each lose one congressional seat.
These three seats would then be reallocated to the provinces of Alajuela, Puntarenas, and Guanacaste.
Andrei Cambronero, a legal advisor to the TSE, confirmed that the electoral body must finalize the distribution of congressional seats in time for the ballots in the upcoming elections.
They are currently examining various studies to determine whether to accept the 2022 census data or to revert to the 2011 figures.
According to Cambronero, there are two possible scenarios: either the magistrates conclude that the 2022 census results are unreliable due to the low participation and opt to use the 2011 census, or they decide that the most recent census data is sufficiently accurate for redistribution purposes.
The coverage rate of the 2022 census was reported at 60.7% of the population, significantly lower than the 91% achieved in 2011. This limited coverage leads the INEC to classify the results of the 2022 census as mere estimates.
In April 2024, the TSE formally requested the INEC to validate the population figures for each province.
The INEC provided these figures but noted the limitations due to the partial coverage, stating that it was impossible to derive 'proper census results.'
The TSE must resolve these issues within the next few weeks or months, as the number of seats representing citizens from each of the seven provinces must be finalized by the time of the official election call.
The TSE will formally announce this call for the elections scheduled for February 2026 on October 1.
Legislation stipulates that the assignment of deputy seats occurs with the election call.
However, it has become customary for the TSE to notify political parties of the population measurement results ahead of time, as this information is vital for parties during their internal candidate selection processes.
Article 106 of the Political Constitution mandates that the TSE allocate seats to provinces in proportion to their populations following each general census.
Cambronero indicated that discussions, exchanges, meetings, and consultations have already taken place between the TSE and INEC officials.
Recently, relevant information collected by the General Directorate of Electoral Registry was sent to the magistrates to inform their decision-making.
Currently, the 57 seats in Congress are distributed as follows: 19 for San José, 11 for Alajuela, seven for Cartago, six for Heredia, five for Puntarenas, five for Limón, and four for Guanacaste.
Should the proposed changes take effect based on the 2022 census, San José would drop to 18 seats, Alajuela would increase to 12, Cartago would remain at six, Heredia would decrease to five, Puntarenas would adjust to six, Limón would remain unchanged, and Guanacaste would increase to five.
The INEC published the results of the 2022 census on July 20, 2023, after overcoming various challenges that affected data collection.
Floribel Méndez Fonseca, the head of the institution, noted that the census managed to record 1,074,258 households from the 1,550,258 visited, yielding an 84% national coverage.
Key challenges included public reluctance to participate, absentee households, assaults on census takers, administrative delays, and insufficient personnel.
Consequently, the data collection period, which initially ran from June 8 to June 28, 2022, was extended until September to complete the task.
